• Question from National Press Club colleague: "Is Zelensky dead man walking?"
• Answer by Robert Weiner: I have seen a couple of times news TV photo of him in front of the Ukraine equivalent of WH -- gorgeous building -- with his giving his messages. Unless he's got bullet proof armor and has lots of security people all round him all the time ready with AK 47 rapid fire machine guns, he could well be a dead man walking, and he will be a forever hero-martyr in Ukraine and the world if so. BUT what he is doing is inspiring the resistance -- tons coming back from escaping now to fight -- and people now in Ukraine preparing to fight and defend that IS slowing the Russians down. But the Ukraine numbers are 1/3-1/5 the Russian numbers on people and weapons so they can only really win with cleverness and dedication -- MANY Russians are questioning the war even Ovechkin (can't figure out if this helps or hurts our chances of getting him as speaker but will try again next week -- he said yes but in person...), and 200 Russian journalists. Best new idea out there is (retired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander) Vindman saying on all the shows we must give lots of unmanned drones (Michael Smerconish on CNN also said best-informed new idea) and have Ukraine start using them. But none the less it all seems hopeless at this point but MAYBE not.

• House will pass impeachment. Has to happen. What he did was defile and attempt to destroy democracy. Since House can, it must, regardless of what Senate does. At least he will be only 2-time impeached President. It's the right thing.
• Little reported is maybe the worst part-- he tried to block and slow-walked the National Guard requested by Hogan and Bowser and Pelosi, and they with Pence had to end run the request to make it happen, but too late.
• It's coming out now, as Cong. Hank Johnson reported on MSNBC, that if the Capitol cop had not shot one particular person breaking into the House chamber itself where everyone was, there would have been shootings and lynchings right in there, by the whole mob, who were armed with zip ties, handcuffs, guns, and knives.
• How the Capitol Police did not have a perimeter of police and a temp fence around the building is beyond everyone, and no metal detectors at all doorway entrances, also beyond explanation. They even had that for the John Lewis funeral activities. Also coming out is some of the Capitol cops were Trump supporters who actually enjoyed, took selfies, and supported the entry of the mob, though of course they probably only expected a show/expanded protest, not violence, and thought the social media warnings were just the usual chatter.
• Yes, impeachment conviction can include bar from future office and pensions block but still don't think Senate will convict when takes it up. 50-50 Senate plus Harris is a long way from 2/3.

• I just HAD to see the final Electoral Vote action by Congress as it happened (3:40 AM), how the people I know all of handled it given the awfully historic day, and knew they would put confidence back in country and they did.
• The one thing I didn't expect was Pence's perfect-pitch actions all through it.
• You could see in his face and tone, and how he followed and respected Pelosi's guidance and worked with her, his love of Constitutional process -- and also in his face and tone, the disgust at the Trump demands he ignored.
• He knew the process and finality was more important than Trump's BS, and he was willing to sacrifice any future endorsement for doing this at this time.

• McConnell will reboot and help with the predictable bills for infrastructure and fixing health care (and virus relief including to small businesses and workers' unemployment) because lot of Republican Senators also want that.
• They will all run from Trump now as fast as they can by nonstatements like McConnell just made on counting the votes (he said to do) while ignoring Trump's blustering malicious but irrelevant lawsuits on it.
• I am hopeful of bipartisanship and McConnell cares about his and Senate's reputation. Actually has done that in the past. But Trump has been a negative on it. Now going going gone. Every Congress regardless of parties with new President starts by trying to look cooperative.
• I think that attitude prevails, and I hope that is why the stock market bounced back.

• TALKING POINT following President Trump's Walter Reed ride and White House Return:
• Some say the President is "back in the saddle," and he said "Don't Let COVID Dominate Your Life"
• I disagree. It's Tarzan yell without nature you live in. He has the virus and isn't even to the midpoint of the 2-week oscillating down spiral when most people feel good after a few days and then the worst develops
• And he said nothing of the 210K who died from it so far nor of the families and friends who knew them All wish Trump well but he needs some humility, reality, and empathy
• I hate to say it, but he's also bringing the party down with him for a huge crash, which could have been avoided
• I think it's now too late to rebound from deficit of the new 16 points, half since the Walter Reed ride and the White House maskless display

• My take anyway..
• Best Regards, Bob

• "When you have a Republican oversight chair who secretly goes to the White House to get White House documents from his old staff working there and claims, 'Look what we found,' and a Republican president who tells Russian diplomats he invited to the Oval Office because Putin called and told him to, and only has Russian press no American media there, and says, 'I fired Comey to get rid of this Russian investigation,' when you have this kind of thing, do you think we need some real oversight now that Democrats are in charge?"
• Note: Prior to working in Clinton White House for 6+ years, Robert Weiner was spokesman for the House Oversight Committee (then called Government Operations Committee) for six years

• I loved the solution offered today on CNN or MSNBC:
• Let Trump declare his emergency and then claim wall win and agree to sign the bills opening the govt.
• Instantaneous solution while the courts and congressional appropriators then see (and courts rule) if his "emergency" use of military for construction and the money are legal.
• But it gets us past the blocking of government and 800,000 jobs.

• I met with Steny at his local holiday party, and he agreed House and probably most Senate will intervene and file that Congress MEANT severability when they VOTED severability LAST YEAR when passed the removal of the tax mandate so the TX judge has no right to say Congress did not say severable. Congress MEANT AND VOTED just last year to allow whole rest of ACA (Obamacare) to maintain. Steny said this issue will be his first item up when new Congress comes back. That TX rogue judge will be overturned and Supreme Court is likely AGAIN to support Congress on ACA if even they decide to take the case after next court sustains the appeal to reverse the lower court. Meanwhile, while that rogue judge decision is being appealed for above, Obamacare STAYS in place.
• So to people deciding on what to do, you are likely just fine using your ACA/Obamacare option. They'd have to take health from 20 million new people that now have it, AND take pre-existing conditions coverage from 120 MILLION people who now have it, to overturn. This will not happen unless they want to see the "revolution." Moreover, in the "new enrollments" for ACA JUST concluded this week, there are 8 1/2 MILLION MORE NEW enrollees.
• Steny said his other priorities he'll bring to the floor as Majority Leader are gun background checks and infrastructure. I told him Rep. Clyburn's statement to me a while ago that Republicans just don't want to pay for infrastructure, and Steny said no longer a worry in the new congress.

• I was in Mulvaney (OMB Director's) WH press briefing yesterday, and he agreed with a questioner who asked, as a former Congressman (Mulvaney is), doesn't most of the budget go nowhere and get totally rewritten by Congress? He conceded it's a valid point. Furthermore, most of the feedback D&R is this whole budget thrust of the vast cuts against the poor in programs like Meals on Wheels, medical research, children's health care, medicaid cuts against the states will go nowhere. You remember the one we just passed for this year reversed almost all the Trump cuts and expect the same in this next year's budget when all is said and done (and there will be a lot of sound and fury about taxpayers first etc but it will land flat). What gets me is the projection of 3% GDP growth based on economic productivity when we've actually had 5.5% under Democratic presidents since FDR because of people and direct jobs programs versus 1.5% under Republicans because of tax breaks for the wealthy pulling money from the budget. It simply does not work. We documented that in a Miami Herald oped with graphs "The Myth of Trickle Down Economics." So anyway, 3% is no biggie, yet that's the bar they are setting.

• Trayvon Martin-George Zimmerman -- Kid (white or black, doesn't matter) enroute home with skittles and tea, a neighborhood watch guy predisposed to looking for crime gets out of his car, chases the unarmed kid because in a hoodie who's on his way home, is advised by 911 "you don't need to do that," regardless chases and guns him down, and claims self defense - when the kid was of COURSE clawing and fighting when chased and literally faced by guy with a gun - I would too - NO ONE made the point that the real self-defense was Martin who of course fought and so what if in that context he put Zimmerman the chaser in danger. The prosecutor was inept, and the jury - TWO of them suspect: one said in the jury-selection process, late for a kid to be out, huh? 7:13 PM? For a teen? So stereotype bias. and the other, "They were doing riots on the case." Huh? Legal peaceful demonstrations are 'riots'? Both jurors should have been DQed. and NO BLACK JURORS. The one "mixed" - they never said how "mixed" - may have been like Zimmerman I think, part Hispanic, and Hispanics don't necessarily sensitize to blacks and often the reverse. So as I said, inept prosecution / state prosecutor and judge both I think by the way appointed by Republican, and while not partisan, predisposed to the Stand-law's biases.
• So despite the defense pizzazz and the prosecution's either ineptness or wink-and-nod predisposition, I know how I would have voted as a juror.
• Now, on the Civil rights case option, more difficult but can make a case given Zimmerman's pre-trial statements and even his 911 calls on Martin as well as history of his comments in 911 calls to the police before this case.
• Where Zimmerman may well be found liable is in a CIVIL case - lower bar of absolute evidence.

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